AGI Prediction Markets

Tracking real-money odds on an Artificial General Intelligence announcement.

13%

chance OpenAI announces AGI by end of 2026

Polymarket · $26k volume · ends Dec 31, 2026

Timeline Odds

Deadline

Probability

Platform

Volume

Link

Jul 2026

Kalshi

$58

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Oct 2026

10%

Kalshi

$31

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Dec 2026

13%

Polymarket

$26k

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Dec 2026

16%

Kalshi

$20

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Apr 2027

25%

Kalshi

$10

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Jul 2027

28%

Kalshi

$10

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Oct 2027

31%

Kalshi

$10

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Jan 2028

33%

Kalshi

$20

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Methodology

Resolution criteria differ: Polymarket resolves on an OpenAI-specific announcement; Kalshi is broader (any company). This explains why the numbers differ.
Real-money markets: Participants have financial stakes. Directional signals, not certainties.
Data updated daily at 6:00 AM ET.
Metaculus not yet integrated (requires account authentication).

Last updated: March 4, 2026 at 2:00 PM UTC