Prediction Markets

This is a personal epistemic dashboard tracking real-money prediction markets. Real money = skin in the game. These are directional signals, not certainties. Updated daily at 6am ET.

Methodology: Data from Polymarket and Kalshi (no Metaculus yet — requires auth). Markets may use different resolution criteria — read each page for details.

Topics

AGI

13%

Will any company announce Artificial General Intelligence?

Part of the Saarthi experiment — building in public. Learn more